The bad news is that this trendline should serve as stiff resistance for the time being, absent a Simone Biles-like vault over the line. The good news is that the GLD has already twice tested the trendline, in early July and early August. These tests should have served to weaken the trendline somewhat. And the resilience on the part of the metal in avoiding a deeper pullback so far suggests that an eventual vault over the trendline should be forthcoming at some point.

When that happens (assuming it does), we don’t know. However, this post-2011 Down trendline looks to be the line to focus on at the moment in determining the direction of the price of gold.