Tag - Flows

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Wednesday, September 7 2016

Hong Kong customs officers detect rising trend of gold and silver bars being smuggled from mainland China

There has been a sharp rise in seizures of gold and silver bars smuggled from mainland China. Customs officers detected more than two tonnes in the first eight months of the year in a move thought to be connected to the rising value of the precious metals.

Officers seized about 2.2 tonnes of smuggled gold and silver worth more than HK$33 million this year, prompting Hong Kong and mainland authorities to strengthen inspections on both sides of the border, the Post was told.

There were no seizures last year and in 2014.

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Monday, September 5 2016

Gold import up, discount down

In the past 10 days, gold import has seen some flow, with demand from jewellers and falling prices.

There are the Ganpati festivals in the west and south, followed by Onam in the second week of September and then the Dussehra demand. Prices were quoting at a three to five per cent discount (to the landed cost of import) in the domestic market in recent months but with demand up, this has fallen to a three-month low to $17.5 an ounce or around Rs 400 per 10g.

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Thursday, August 25 2016

Swiss Customs Data Indicates Gold Flowing East to West

It is clear there was a shift early this year where we see flows out of Asia and the Middle East increase dramatically with a corresponding reduction in flows from the USA and UK. Higher metal prices often results in more scrap flows from Asia, so the increase in gold prices in 2016 has been a factor behind this change. In the case of the UAE, as they are a source location for both legitimate and smuggling trade to India, as Indian demand has waned and the market there has become oversupplied (indicated by prices there going to a discount to London, see this article quoting an importing bank saying that “so far in 2016 our bullion business is down nearly 75 percent”) any stock build up by Middle East dealers would have to be liquidated.

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Wednesday, August 24 2016

Illicit gold: India's smugglers shut out refiners, banks

Smuggled gold could account for more than a third of demand this year in India - the world's second-biggest buyer of the metal after China - potentially costing the government over $1 billion in lost revenue.

Smuggled gold into India could double to as much as 300 tonnes in 2016, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, director at All India Gems and Jewelry Trade Federation, although the World Gold Council (WGC) has put the figure at 160 tonnes. At 300 tonnes, the government would forego about $1.3 billion at current gold prices.

India's official gold imports fell 57 percent in the first seven months of 2016 to 215 tonnes, and could fall more than 60 percent for the year to 350 tonnes to 400 tonnes, the lowest level in two decades, said Sunil Kashyap, managing director, Global Banking and Markets at Scotiabank.

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Tuesday, August 16 2016

The Gold Price And Global Flows. The UK Net Imported 152 tonnes In June

On a firmly rising gold price the UK is one of the largest net importers of gold in 2016. The gold price went up 25 % from $1,061.5 dollars per troy ounce on January 1 to $1,325.8 on June 31. Over this period the UK net imported 583 tonnes and GLD inventory mushroomed by 308 tonnes.

In general, every time the West starts hoarding in the UK and Switzerland the price goes up, and when they sell the price declines. I think these charts show that there is more correlation between physical supply and demand than is widely assumed in the gold space.

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Saturday, August 6 2016

Australia Customs Department Confirms BullionStar’s Analysis On Gold Export To China

One of the largest exporters of gold to China is Australia, but calculating Australia’s gold export to China is complicated, as we need to be cautious to avoid double counting in computing China’s total net gold import. The thing is, ABS bluntly alters any “export to Hong Kong” into “export to China” when they suspect the gold is shipped to Hong Kong but will reach the mainland as its final destination – this is what ABS confirmed to me. Therefor, from using Australia’s “export to China” double counting can arise when any gold flowing from Australia via Hong Kong to China would then be declared as “export to China” by Australia and “export to China” by Hong Kong.

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Tuesday, August 2 2016

India gold bar imports down 62% in July to 27 mt

Indian gold bar imports totaled 27 mt in July, down 62% from 72 mt a year earlier, preliminary customs data showed Tuesday.

Imports were up marginally on the month, 1.7% higher than 26 mt reported in June.

Physical demand in India, the world's largest consumer after China, has struggled this year amid high prices and a running dispute with the government over new taxes and proposed reforms to the industry.

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The Visible Flow of Gold in 2015

How gold flows through the markets

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Monday, August 1 2016

Indians plow 2.95 tonnes of gold into banks

The Indian government's plan to incent households to hand their gold over to banks in return for interest payments appears to be working.

Gold imports have all but imploded with shipments dropping to to just 130 tonnes year to date. At this rate annual imports could be the lowest in at least two decades.

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Sunday, July 31 2016

Austrian Mint sells 41 tonnes of gold coins and gold bars in 2015

Earlier this year, the director of marketing and sales at the Austrian Mint confirmed to Bloomberg in an interview that the Mint’s combined gold bar and gold coin sales in 2015 had totalled 1.32 million troy ounces, a 45% increase on 2014, while the Mint’s silver sales in 2015 had reached 7.3 million ounces, a figure 58% higher than in 2014.

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Austrian Mint Coin Sales

Gold/Silver sales at the Austrian Mint for 2015

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Thursday, July 28 2016

Asia Gold-Steadily higher prices keep a lid on physical demand

Physical gold sales remained subdued in Asia this week as steadily higher prices kept buyers on the sidelines, but consumer appetite for the yellow metal was seen increasing in the coming weeks helped by seasonal demand.

However, seasonal demand in top consumers India and China would boost interest for the safe haven asset starting the middle of next month, analysts said.

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Wednesday, July 27 2016

WHAT’S GOING ON??? Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States

As we can see, the Swiss gold exports to the United States are normally less than 0.5 metric ton a month. And for many months there weren’t any gold exports. However, something big changed in May as Swiss gold exports surged to 20.7 mt (665.500 oz).

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Tuesday, July 26 2016

India's gold trade is imploding

Gold imports have all but imploded with shipments dropping to to just 130 tonnes year to date. At this rate annual imports could be the lowest in at least two decades.

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Saturday, July 23 2016

Switzerland Gold Imports & Exports

Swiss imports/exports for June
As can be seen in the last chart England has strong demand the last four months with over 250 tonnes being imported from Switzerland.

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Tuesday, July 19 2016

Gold imports fall for the fifth month in 2016, exports grow after 18 months

India's gold imports fell for the fifth month in a row in 2016. The yellow metal witnessed a decline of 29.49 percent in February, 80 percent in March, 60.47 percent in April and 39 percent in May of 2016 from the year earlier period.

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Wednesday, July 13 2016

India gold bar imports fall 46% in June to 26 mt; dore imports rebound

Indian gold bar imports fell 46% in June to 26 mt, from 50.1 mt in May, customs data showed Tuesday.

Imports were down 40% year on year, from 44.6 mt in June 2015, to their lowest level since March.

Previously unheard of discounts as steep as $100/oz for gold paid in cash have been reported in the past several days.

Surprisingly given a huge drop-off this year, imports of gold dore unrefined gold ore jumped over fourfold in June to 44.6 mt, the highest in almost a year.

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Thursday, July 7 2016

Chinese Gold Demand 973t In H1 2016

Chinese wholesale gold demand, as measured by withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), reached a sizable 973 metric tonnes in the first half of 2016, down 7 % compared to last year.

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Thursday, June 30 2016

China gold imports jump 68% in May to 115 mt, highest in five months

Gold imports to mainland China from Hong Kong totaled 115 mt in May, up 68% month on month to the highest level since December, data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government showed Tuesday.

The figure was up 63% year on year from 70.7 mt in May 2015.

Gold bar imports in India, the world's second-largest consumer after China, jumped 46% in May to around 50 mt, while Turkey saw gold imports surge 155% during the month to around 8 mt.

Gold exports from Switzerland, the world's largest exporter, rose 20% in May.

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Friday, June 24 2016

Switzerland Gold Imports & Exports

Swiss imports/exports for May

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