It is clear there was a shift early this year where we see flows out of Asia and the Middle East increase dramatically with a corresponding reduction in flows from the USA and UK. Higher metal prices often results in more scrap flows from Asia, so the increase in gold prices in 2016 has been a factor behind this change. In the case of the UAE, as they are a source location for both legitimate and smuggling trade to India, as Indian demand has waned and the market there has become oversupplied (indicated by prices there going to a discount to London, see this article quoting an importing bank saying that “so far in 2016 our bullion business is down nearly 75 percent”) any stock build up by Middle East dealers would have to be liquidated.

On a firmly rising gold price the UK is one of the largest net importers of gold in 2016. The gold price went up 25 % from $1,061.5 dollars per troy ounce on January 1 to $1,325.8 on June 31. Over this period the UK net imported 583 tonnes and GLD inventory mushroomed by 308 tonnes.

In general, every time the West starts hoarding in the UK and Switzerland the price goes up, and when they sell the price declines. I think these charts show that there is more correlation between physical supply and demand than is widely assumed in the gold space.

Indian gold bar imports totaled 27 mt in July, down 62% from 72 mt a year earlier, preliminary customs data showed Tuesday.

Imports were up marginally on the month, 1.7% higher than 26 mt reported in June.

Physical demand in India, the world's largest consumer after China, has struggled this year amid high prices and a running dispute with the government over new taxes and proposed reforms to the industry.

The Indian government's plan to incent households to hand their gold over to banks in return for interest payments appears to be working.

Gold imports have all but imploded with shipments dropping to to just 130 tonnes year to date. At this rate annual imports could be the lowest in at least two decades.

Gold/Silver sales at the Austrian Mint for 2015

As we can see, the Swiss gold exports to the United States are normally less than 0.5 metric ton a month. And for many months there weren’t any gold exports. However, something big changed in May as Swiss gold exports surged to 20.7 mt (665.500 oz).

Swiss imports/exports for June
As can be seen in the last chart England has strong demand the last four months with over 250 tonnes being imported from Switzerland.

Indian gold bar imports fell 46% in June to 26 mt, from 50.1 mt in May, customs data showed Tuesday.

Imports were down 40% year on year, from 44.6 mt in June 2015, to their lowest level since March.

Previously unheard of discounts as steep as $100/oz for gold paid in cash have been reported in the past several days.

Surprisingly given a huge drop-off this year, imports of gold dore unrefined gold ore jumped over fourfold in June to 44.6 mt, the highest in almost a year.

Gold imports to mainland China from Hong Kong totaled 115 mt in May, up 68% month on month to the highest level since December, data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government showed Tuesday.

The figure was up 63% year on year from 70.7 mt in May 2015.

Gold bar imports in India, the world's second-largest consumer after China, jumped 46% in May to around 50 mt, while Turkey saw gold imports surge 155% during the month to around 8 mt.

Gold exports from Switzerland, the world's largest exporter, rose 20% in May.