Tag - Market Timing

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Saturday, October 20 2018

Financial Extremes

If you do not own gold, there is no sensible reason other than you do not know history, or you do not know the economics of it..........over long periods of time the price of gold approximates the total amount of money in circulation divided by the gold stock.

Ray Dalio, 2015.

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Wednesday, October 17 2018

IMF report highlights gold's relevance

Last week stocks were hammered, and gold acted as a key flight-to-safety asset in the market. Initially, as the US market retreated, gold held steady. But as the sell-off became more systemic globally, gold began to rally meaningfully

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Wednesday, October 10 2018

Nobel laureate says current stock market echoes 1929

Hussman recommends “humble cash” as the best option “because it offers opportunity to respond to deep market losses.” We would refine that a bit. Green cash is a good option under the circumstances Hussman describes. Gold cash is even better. Inflation could become an issue. If it does, gold can do things for you that green cash cannot – like appreciate, rather than depreciate, in value. The inflation does not have to rise to the level summarized in our accompanying photograph either. Historically, gold has proven to be a solid hedge against even comparatively minor doses of currency depreciation.

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Saturday, September 29 2018

Gold's Bottom Could Be Investors' Lost Treasure

Get ready, gold bulls: The precious metal could be close to finding a bottom.

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Monday, September 24 2018

Gold Has Been Behaving Strangely, Here’s Why

Lately, gold has been "sticky" upwards, shrugging off dollar declines but has dropped dramatically whenever the dollar rises even a little bit.

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Bank of America Sees Gold Soaring Above $1,300 on Fiscal Deficit

Gold is set to surge over the next year as concerns deepen about the widening U.S. budget deficit and a tariff-driven trade war starts to damage the country’s economy, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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Saturday, September 22 2018

Sprott Gold Report: Physical Matters

The message COMEX shorts are about to receive is that gold buyers in India, China, Russia and Turkey don’t care much about the Fed’s dot plot or Q3 GDP. As we await rebirth of western investment demand in gold markets, we suspect an imminent clash between hyper-bearish COMEX spec positioning and staunch global physical demand is about to ignite some short-term pyrotechnics. This should be interesting to watch.

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Wednesday, September 19 2018

Crescat: The Hamstrung Fed, Gold, & The Bursting Of China's "Mother Of All Credit Bubbles"

Gold is cheapest ever in history compared to the global fiat monetary base as we recently showed.

Therefore, if we could own just one asset class to hedge against ultimately rising inflation as record financial asset bubbles are bursting, it’s precious metals

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Thursday, September 13 2018

U.S. Dollar and Gold: Is This Time Different?

In other words, gold has become cheap (and undeservingly so) – which might be painful for those currently holding gold but offers an excellent opportunity for those who want to build up their gold positions. In any case, it appears that we are right in the middle of a situation in which market prices do not reflect ‘true values’: The stock market seems to be expensive, and gold is too cheap. And history taught us that over- and undervaluations will be corrected over time.

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Sunday, September 2 2018

The Beginning of the End?

Many emerging market currencies are collapsing. John Rubino says these crises have the potential to spread across the globe, and could lead to the ultimate demise of the U.S. Dollar. Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, and Pakistan all have currencies that are in crisis. These currency crises could be the catalyst for the crash of the U.S. Dollar. How can people protect themselves? John Rubino says safety is found in physical precious metals. He explains why gold and silver may be set up for a spike in the next six months.

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Crashing currency chaos spreads across the Global South

It’s no wonder that Russia, China, Turkey, Iran – nearly every major regional player invested in Eurasia integration – is buying gold with the aim of progressively getting out of US dollar hegemony. As JP Morgan himself coined it over a century ago, “Gold is money. All else is credit.”

Every currency war though is not about gold; it’s about the US dollar. Yet the US dollar now is like an inscrutable visitor from outer space, dependent on massive leverage; a galaxy of dodgy derivatives; the QE printing scheme; and gold not being awarded its true importance.

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Saturday, September 1 2018

Before This Is Over, Gold Might Turn Into A Bubble

So with the tough summer it's been for gold gem I know you've said in the past many times that you buy when gold is down. Was that a good time for you.

Not yet. I'm still waiting for Bell from 950 or some 950U.S. dollars an ounce or something like that. It may not get there if it doesn't. It's ok I'll own a lot of gold but that's not what I plan to do Daniela. If it gets there I hope I'm smart enough and brave enough to buy a lot of gold because before this is over before this is over any gold is going to turn into a very overpriced asset. It might even turn into a bubble.

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Thursday, August 30 2018

Inflation Has Run Amok

“I am no gold bug, but I can tell you gold is the ultimate hiding place. It is the ultimate place to hide when financial markets are disrupted because when financial markets are disrupted, all of them react in tandem. All of that hooey that you need to have a diversified portfolio, all of that falls apart with one exception, and that would be precious metals.”

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Why The Gold Market Looks Poised For Reversal

Brien predicts that the brutal period for precious metals may soon be over. In fact, he now seeing a bullish alignment of factors he's seen before, which precursored a sharp move upwards in the prices of gold and silver:

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Friday, August 24 2018

Gold: A Case of Extremes

The current bout of extreme gold weakness coincides with resurgence in complacency despite the deepening crises in Turkey and Venezuela, continuing rise in populism across the Eurozone, acceleration of the deficit spending against the background of rising rates, increasing geopolitical risks, and historically generous financial asset valuations. In the past, any of these developments would have provided a catalyst for reduced risk appetite but no more – years of bailouts and market supports have in our opinion inured investors to the implications of systemic risks and reduced demand for systemic insurance solutions such as physical gold and mining assets. Throughout history, periods of complacency rarely ended well. The time to buy insurance is when risk perceptions are the lowest making insurance cheap relative to the risk. We believe that now is such a time.

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Tuesday, August 21 2018

Bridging the ‘fourth turning’ with gold

Like Howe, I too believe that the “giant problem” will somehow find resolution, but my concern is getting across the bridge between the “final season of history” and its ultimate resolution – whatever fate might dictate. That is why I own gold personally and why I think every thinking investor should own it as well. The name of the game is to protect wealth and not leave the results of your life work on the table as the fourth turning moves into its final phases.

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Monday, August 20 2018

Sentiment pitfalls, the gold edition

At the moment, gold is not in a bull market. It is either still immersed in the bear market that began in 2011 or immersed in a long-term basing pattern.

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Friday, August 17 2018

Wicksell's Elegant Model

According to Wicksell, when the market rate is below the natural rate, there is an incentive to borrow and reinvest in an economy at the higher natural rate. This normally leads to an economic boom until demand drives up the market rate and eventually chokes off demand. When the market rate exceeds the natural rate, borrowing slows along with economic activity eventually leading to a recession, and the market rate again falls back below the natural rate. Wicksell viewed the divergences between the natural rate and the market rate as the mechanism by which the economic cycle is determined. If a divergence between the natural rate and the market rate is abnormally sustained, it causes a severe misallocation of capital.

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Wednesday, August 15 2018

It's Time for Contrarians to Get Bullish on Gold

Gold can’t seem to catch a break. The yellow metal normally acts as a safe haven in times of political and economic strife, but in the face of Turkey’s lira meltdown, investors have taken cover instead in the U.S. dollar. On Monday, the stronger greenback pushed gold to end below $1,200 an ounce for the first time since January 2017.

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Tuesday, August 14 2018

Gold: Bearish fundamentals, bullish sentiment

For the first time this year, about two weeks ago the sentiment backdrop became decisively supportive of the gold price and remains so. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop is unequivocally bearish for gold. What will be the net effect of these counteracting forces?

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