Tag - Market Timing

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Wednesday, October 18 2017

What Goldbugs Have Been Waiting For: Goldman’s New Primer On Gold

The good news is that Goldman believes “precious metals remain a relevant asset class in modern portfolios, despite their lack of yield” and disagrees with Ben Bernanke and the naysayers “They are neither a historic accident or a relic. Indeed, by looking at each of the physical properties of an ideal long-term store of value…we can clearly see why precious metals were initially adopted and why they remain relevant today.”

It was sounding really good – and there was 91 pages to go - although when it came to the drivers of precious metal prices, Goldman did not exactly re-invent the wheel “We see two key drivers of the precious metals markets: Fear and Wealth”

That said, there was a new take on what, in Goldman's eyes constitutes fear as “in our new framework we see a closer link to growth expectations. However, we ?nd that many risk factors are relevant, depending on the sub-component of gold demand: real interest rates, debasement risks, sovereign balance sheet risks, geopolitical risks and other market tail-risks. Stated more simply, we are talking about the drivers of “risk-on”/”risk-off” behavior in markets.”

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Tuesday, October 17 2017

We Don’t Know How to Replace the Great Big Gold Deposits From the Past

Production is declining and this is going to put an enormous amount of pressure on prices down the road. If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every of those decades the industry found at least one 50+ million ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits. But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits. So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know. We do not have those ore bodies in sight.

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Monday, October 16 2017

Contrarian Music

In our view, gold and the precious-metals complex is in the early stages of a dynamic upcycle that will match or exceed the run from 2000 to 2011.

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Saturday, September 23 2017

You're Going To See A Rush For Gold - Katusa Warns De-Dollarization Is Accelerating

When that money comes back… which it will… and the world starts cluing in that the emerging markets need gold to convert the Yuan and the Ruble and all these different factors, you’re going to see a massive rush for Gold.

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AAA-rated manager buys gold for first time in seven years

Citywire AAA-rated David Coombs has added gold to his multi-asset funds for the first time in seven years.

The manager of the £312.09 million (€352.16 million) Rathbone Multi-Asset Strategic Growth Portfolio had held a cash position of around 15%.

However, the multi-asset manager has this week used around 1.5% of this allocation to make a significant move into the precious metal.

'In each of the funds we are slowly building a position to about 5%. Gold is always a very difficult purchase and, while I have bought it before, it was some years ago,’ Coombs told Citywire Selector.

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Wednesday, September 20 2017

This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From

We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets.

The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years.

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Tuesday, September 12 2017

Gold: Risk from Diminished Rate Expectations

Gold, silver and platinum prices have been rebounding over the past six months for what appears to be one major reason: investors losing faith in the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising interest rates in the current tightening cycle, as reflected in Fed Funds Futures.

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Thursday, September 7 2017

On paper gold has never looked better

A faltering economy, creeping inflation and ongoing geopolitical issues are feeding a resurgence in demand for the yellow metal - and best of all it has cracked a critical six year chart resistance levels. If gold is really "the sum of all fears" then the gold price is saying that not all is rosey in the garden - best of all gold seems to have momentum behind it too.

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Saturday, September 2 2017

Here’s How to Crack the Code on Gold

“The bigger picture to look as here is that gold hit an interim low last December and has been grinding higher ever since. Now gold is up over $200 an ounce and is one of the best performing assets in 2017. There’s a pattern of higher highs and shows a very positive occurrence.”

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Thursday, August 31 2017

Why Gold Is Less of a Haven These Days

First, the prolonged pursuit of unconventional measures by central banks has helped meaningfully decouple asset prices from underlying fundamentals. In such circumstances, historically based models will tend to overestimate the reaction of asset prices to heightened geopolitical tensions -- including the fall in risk assets such as equities, or the rise in gold.

Second, a portion of the traditional buyer interest in gold has been diverted to the growing markets for cryptocurrencies, which are also benefiting from a general increase in demand. As such, the returns to investors there have been significantly greater, sucking in even more funds.

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Wednesday, August 30 2017

Weird Things Are Happening With Gold

Last week featured two unusual stories on gold — one strange and the other truly weird. These stories explain why gold is not just money but is the most politicized form of money.

They show that while politicians publicly disparage gold, they quietly pay close attention to it.

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Tuesday, August 29 2017

The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations

We wrote many years ago that gold often takes on many personalities at any given time:

Gold is a weird cat with multiple personalities and more than nine lives. The yellow metal is up almost $100 since last Friday’s weak U.S. employment report.

At any given time period gold will assume any one of its multiple personalities based on a fundamental story and trade as: 1) a safe haven; 2) an inflation hedge; 3) a commodity; 4) a store of value against central bank balance sheet expansion; 5) an alternative currency; 6) central bank reserve currency; 7) a diversification asset; 8) an Armageddon hedge; and/or 9) all of the above.

   –  Global Macro Monitor, June 6, 2012

Add to that, what we have induced through market observation, the potential for a gold-bond tracking risk-on/risk-off algorithm. That is algos programmed to track gold with the bond on an almost daily basis.

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Monday, August 28 2017

Investors Pull Billions from Stocks As New Bitcoin, Crypto Options Appear

CNBC has reported that the stock market has seen the largest withdrawal rate since 2004, with more than $30 bln being taken out of the markets over the past 10 weeks. The major withdrawal also included a huge abandoning of precious metals.

Private client allocation to precious metals has seen a massive reduction, with portfolios holding 10 percent in 2013 being reduced to below two percent in recent weeks.

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Friday, August 25 2017

Four reasons the gold price has entered a new bull market

If we look at history for guidance, then we see gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stockmarket weakness.

Gold’s perceived “safe haven” status is well-supported with hard evidence. For example, if we look back at gold price performance between 1961 and July 2017 (see chart 1 below), it is very clear that gold price annual returns were positive, particularly during periods of high inflation, while stockmarket returns were negative.

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Thursday, August 24 2017


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, looking at the analysis of Socrates on gold we see that the Momentum is bullish, trend is bullish, cycle trend is bullish, but Long term is bearish, how does that square with your call that Gold is going up to $5,000.00 when the long term is bearish.

ANSWER: Looking very long-term is different from the relevant time frame. Gold has not broken out and I have given the number where that becomes a possibility. We are not yet there. Events on the horizon are the critical issue. The world is not ready yet and the stock market also reflects this pending threshold. Socrates comment is thus concerned with the immediate outlook and until gold gets through key points, there is no breakout. The extreme target is not due on this cycle but the next.

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Is the Fed Done (Tightening) for this Cycle?

Spot gold has spent the past seven months in a tight trading range between $1,200 and $1,300 per ounce. Given the stored force inherent in such a trading pattern, history suggests a breakout, whether up or down, is likely to be characterized by steep slope. The question remains, which direction will gold follow? Given that a prominent macroeconomic development during the past several months has been perceived central-bank hawkishness, consensus appears to favor pending gold-price pressure. On the other hand, spot gold is now flirting with the $1,300 upward-trading-bound for the third time in five months.

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Tuesday, August 8 2017

Fred Hickey Warns "It's Only Question Of When The Tech Time Bomb Goes Off"

So just as this is an extraordinarily dangerous moment in the tech world and in the overall stock market it is just as an extraordinary moment being long gold and especially the gold mining stocks.

But I’m involved in a group of alternative FANG stocks, the gold FANGs: Franco Nevada, Agnico-Eagle Mines, New Gold and Goldcorp.

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Friday, August 4 2017

Surprise! Gold Prices Have Beaten the Market So Far this Century

More impressively, the price of gold has outperformed the S&P 500 Index so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions, both of them resulting in a loss of around 40 percent. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, boosting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.

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Wednesday, August 2 2017


Many investors rightly believe that the gold and silver markets are moved most by geopolitical events, monetary policy, shifting economic paradigms such as inflation or deflation, and a number of other factors - most of which are covered regularly in this newsletter. Few know that there is another aspect to gold and silver's price behavior and that is its seasonality, as shown in the charts immediately below. Seasoned physical precious metals investors often time their purchases during the so-called "summer doldrums" when business is quiet and prices are down. It doesn't always work out that the price trends higher in the second half of the year.

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Friday, July 28 2017

Gold Market Charts

Using charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US chart website, this monthly series from BullionStar looks at the latest trends in some of the world’s most important physical gold markets such as Switzerland, China, and India. Among the charts this month is commentary explaining how the Bank of Russia is said to acquire its gold holdings, how the SPDR Gold Trust has been noticeably losing gold since June, how the US (and not London) was the top supplier of gold to Switzerland during July, and how there are 68 owners per ounce of COMEX registered gold for every gold claim traded on the COMEX gold futures exchange.

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