Tag - Market Timing
Tuesday, August 8 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, August 8 2017, 00:44
So just as this is an extraordinarily dangerous moment in the tech world and in the overall stock market it is just as an extraordinary moment being long gold and especially the gold mining stocks.
But I’m involved in a group of alternative FANG stocks, the gold FANGs: Franco Nevada, Agnico-Eagle Mines, New Gold and Goldcorp.
Friday, August 4 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, August 4 2017, 01:14
More impressively, the price of gold has outperformed the S&P 500 Index so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions, both of them resulting in a loss of around 40 percent. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, boosting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.
Wednesday, August 2 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, August 2 2017, 00:26
Many investors rightly believe that the gold and silver markets are moved most by geopolitical events, monetary policy, shifting economic paradigms such as inflation or deflation, and a number of other factors - most of which are covered regularly in this newsletter. Few know that there is another aspect to gold and silver's price behavior and that is its seasonality, as shown in the charts immediately below. Seasoned physical precious metals investors often time their purchases during the so-called "summer doldrums" when business is quiet and prices are down. It doesn't always work out that the price trends higher in the second half of the year.
Friday, July 28 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, July 28 2017, 01:50
Using charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US chart website, this monthly series from BullionStar looks at the latest trends in some of the world’s most important physical gold markets such as Switzerland, China, and India. Among the charts this month is commentary explaining how the Bank of Russia is said to acquire its gold holdings, how the SPDR Gold Trust has been noticeably losing gold since June, how the US (and not London) was the top supplier of gold to Switzerland during July, and how there are 68 owners per ounce of COMEX registered gold for every gold claim traded on the COMEX gold futures exchange.
Wednesday, July 26 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, July 26 2017, 23:35
Price is the boat in the water. Value is the anchor dropped and sitting on the ocean floor. The rope between anchor and boat are its volatility. The waves are events. Gold is not volatile, its rope is not longfrom boat to anchor. But Gold is in a tiny, private ocean where some kid can make waves any time he wants to push the price as far away as he can from the value
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, July 26 2017, 01:36
Gold net long positions hitting an extreme low and the last two times this happened, we saw a 10% move, which would bring about $1,400 in a matter of months.
Saturday, July 22 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, July 22 2017, 01:01
That gold is still holding at its current level—despite rising rates, despite a stock market that continues to rally—is “encouraging.”
That’s one of the key takeaways from a UBS note this week, in which the Swiss financial services firm maintains its constructive view of the yellow metal. Investor demand this year has been slower than expected, but UBS analyst Joni Teves makes the case that expectations of a good monsoon season in India this summer could help push consumption in the world’s second-largest importer of gold to a new record high by the end of the year. With India having imported a phenomenal 525 metric tons in the first half of 2017 alone, Teves writes that “we expect gold demand in India this year to be around historic averages,” which would be very supportive for prices.
Wednesday, July 19 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, July 19 2017, 03:25
I’d love to be able to declare that the bull market in gold and silver is back on. Gold and silver bull markets are wonderful things. Maybe the bull market begins tomorrow. I hope so. But I’m afraid that, depressing though it may be, I have to be honest and say I can’t see it. The conditions aren’t right.
We need triggers. In 2001, people turned to gold as they fled stockmarkets after the dotcom crash. Ditto post 2008. From being a forgotten asset there grew a genuine belief that the monetary system was broken and that gold was the solution.
Such beliefs may well be even more correct now than they were then. But the problem is there are fewer such believers; there is no common narrative to give such a bull market impetus. The “money-is-broken” narrative has moved over to bitcoin. The stockmarket is rising and acting as a perfectly good hedge against inflation. Why bother with gold?
Thursday, July 13 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, July 13 2017, 01:16
A few moments ago on Fox Business Channel we heard someone proclaim that "given all that's going on the world, gold should probably be $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce". Who actually had the gall to say this on live television? You won't believe it unless you see it for yourself.
So, here you go. This is Neil Cavuto discussing the "markets" with Terry Duffy, the one and only CEO of the CME Group.
Friday, June 23 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, June 23 2017, 03:25
In no particular order, the gold market’s six most important fundamental price drivers are the trends in 1) the real interest rate, 2) the yield curve, 3) credit spreads, 4) the relative strength of the banking sector, 5) the US dollar’s exchange rate and 6) commodity prices in general. Even though it creates some duplication, the bond/dollar ratio should also be included.
Saturday, June 17 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, June 17 2017, 01:08
Talks on gold at 27 minutes in.
Gold to 700 then 400-450 - then the greatest gold boom in history.
Dent keeps on telling the goldbugs that they will be right about $4000-$5000 gold but that they will be dead before it happens.
Peak in 2038-2040
Friday, June 9 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, June 9 2017, 04:13
They want to make money – but they also want to execute on strategies that will protect their wealth and build robust portfolios that can withstand any type of macro event.
Thursday, June 1 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 23:55
We live in an age of advanced monetary surrealism. In Q1 2017 alone, the largest central banks created the equivalent of almost USD 1,000bn. worth of central bank money ex nihilo. Naturally the fresh currency was not used to fund philanthropic projects but to purchase financial securities. Although this ongoing liquidity supernova has temporarily created an uneasy calm in financial markets, we are strongly convinced that the real costs of this monetary madness will reveal themselves down the line.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 11:25
Deutsche Bank published a special report on the global gold sector, stating “we feel investors should prepare for a flight to gold” in the uncertain global climate. The report also emphasizes the importance of looking for the gold stocks that offer better value, growth or leverage.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 01:34
The upshot of this is that gold looks better than treasuries. However, it should be pointed out that this does not mean gold is a buy. It only states that gold could do better than treasuries in these market conditions. Gold could still fall from here, but treasuries could fall further. One way that this could occur is a collapse in the US dollar, and the Federal Reserve reacting to a weakening US dollar by raising rates.
Tuesday, May 30 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 30 2017, 00:49
Gold will rally ONLY when people begin to see that governments are failing. I am not talking about my readers. We all see what is coming. I am talking about the AVERAGE person on the street. Then you will see the gold breakout. We are getting closing. Patience is required when it comes to gold.
Monday, May 22 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, May 22 2017, 23:05
Perhaps gold’s relative stability belies a degree of incipient investor apprehension. Whatever the motivating factors may be, the suppression of volatility in equity markets is currently being reflected in equivalent suppression of volatility in gold bullion. Indeed, as shown in our addenda graph, implied volatility for spot gold currently stands at a 10-year low. The insurance value of a portfolio commitment to gold is always cheapest before the onset of market volatility against which gold provides protection. For this reason, historic complacency in equity markets may actually be signaling growing urgency for a commitment to precious metals.
Thursday, May 18 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, May 18 2017, 05:24
Gold investors are worried about record high valuations in the S&P 500, despite the fact that gold stocks have shown a negative correlation to the general equities since 2011. The reason for this fear? 2008.The market crash of 2008 did not just hurt the S&P, it hurt real estate and gold equities. The sell off was brutal. So was 2008 an isolated incident or does a crash in general equities always spell doom for gold and gold stocks?
We examined five previous bear markets starting in 1973 in the S&P and looked at the performance of gold and gold stocks.
Tuesday, May 16 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 16 2017, 01:01
Make no mistake, brick and mortar retail is dying. And while there has been modest coverage of the topic in recent weeks, it has focused more on the dismal earnings and subsequent shellacking of a few retail stocks. The reality is that this is much, much bigger. We are in the early stages of a seismic shift in the way goods are purchased – a dislocation that has the potential to unleash far-reaching systemic implications and to profoundly alter the U.S. economy as we know it – from basic employment, to commercial real estate, to the stability of the financial sector and the very same banks brought to the brink during the financial crisis. And whether this takes years to play out or months, the end result is the same: The loss of the two largest employment categories by number of workers, combined with an unparalleled glut of unused commercial real estate, is a crisis in the making.
Anyone who has followed the gold market in recent years knows how it performs in times of crisis.
Saturday, May 13 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, May 13 2017, 01:32
As you can see in the chart below, based on data provided by Moore Research Center, the five-year pattern, represented by the orange line, is diverging from the longer-term trends. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.