Tag - Market Timing
Wednesday, April 26 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, April 26 2017, 01:36
At Sprott, our investment thesis for gold is significantly long-term in scope. We believe gold’s methodical advance since 2000 has had more to do with the growing disconnect between productive output (GDP) and ever-inflating claims on that output (debt and equity valuations), than with short-term fluctuations in variables such as CPI-type inflation or interest rates. Because we view gold as a highly productive, portfolio-diversifying asset until such time as these gaping imbalances are finally resolved (through default or debasement or both), we are generally loath to focus on short-term projections for gold markets. However, the current alignment of fundamental, technical and quantitative factors underpinning gold markets has become so asymmetrical to the upside, we have developed high confidence for an imminent and potentially significant rally in precious-metal valuations.
Friday, April 21 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 21 2017, 01:55
Prime Minister Theresa May surprised the public when she called for an early general election on Tuesday, and sent cautious savers to seek safety in physical gold.
The Pure Gold Company said it saw a 119% increase in customers buying physical gold after the announcement, with one person buying £1.3 million worth of one ounce gold Britannia coins.
Thursday, April 20 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 20 2017, 02:33
Gold will end the year higher, spurred by faster inflation and political tensions in Russia, Syria and North Korea, according to Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the best forecaster for the metal last quarter.
Prices could take a v-shaped path this year, with a swoon coming mid-year as the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates, said Daniela Corsini, an analyst at the bank. Gold will likely bounce back by year-end, reaching a high of $1,350 an ounce in the fourth quarter, she predicted.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 20 2017, 02:31
Sweeney said: "We are potentially in the advanced stages of this current market cycle and think it prudent to add in an asset that has no counter party risk, duration risk and can do something truly different in a period of stress.
"We see gold as providing a level of downside protection in portfolios, which is what we are seeking at the current time."
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 20 2017, 02:30
With gold having no intrinsic value, its attraction is governed by sentiment alone, and some buyers think there are more reasons to be positive now than in the past.
Architas investment manager Nathan Sweeney said he had increased a position in the metal this year, calling it a “prudent” diversifier.
Wednesday, April 19 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, April 19 2017, 03:17
What is the very big picture of spot Gold telling us, if anything? That there is a very bullish outlier scenario that could be unfolding...
We can make the case that all of the action from 2013 through mid-April 2017 is a base-accumulation formation that concluded the major corrective period from the September 2011 high at $1921.50 into the December 2015 low at $1046.20.
Tuesday, April 18 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, April 18 2017, 08:57
This report is an introduction to CPM Group and its way of thinking about gold. Strategic Wealth Preservation have entered a strategic alliance in which it will make CPM Group’s research and outlook on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium available to SWP clients. Since this is the first report, we want to spend part of it introducing you into CPM’s overall approach toward gold, and to a related degree, other precious metals, as investments.
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, April 18 2017, 08:40
According to Gold Mining Chairman Amir Adnani and Sprott U.S. Holdings CEO Rick Rule, some of the biggest billionaire investors on the planet are actively seeking out precious metals like gold as wealth protection insurance amid the uncertainty of the current geo-political climate.
In a recent interview with SGT Report, Adnani explains that several super wealthy individuals with whom he works very closely, including mainland China’s biggest billionaire investor and the richest man in all of Asia Li Ka-shing, have a renewed and urgent interest in diversifying their assets into both, gold mining firms and the physical asset itself:
Saturday, April 15 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, April 15 2017, 07:44
Robert McEwen, one of the gold’s industry’s best-known bulls, is predicting that the precious metal will continue to surge this year, closing 2017 much higher than today’s prices of around 1,290 an ounce.
The former investment banker, who for years have made bold predictions when it comes to precious metal prices, is sure that bullion will reach $5,000 an ounce, though, he warns, that won’t happen “immediately.”
“The metal is in an upward trend now and while it has years to go before it peaks, gold will continue to climb higher. It won’t be a straight line, but the direction is definitively up,” he told MINING.com.
Friday, April 14 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 14 2017, 05:12
In a Bloomberg survey this week, traders and analysts were the most positive on gold since December 2015. Another bullish sign, prices have climbed above the 200-day moving average and Britain’s Royal Mint said bullion purchases jumped 20 percent in the first quarter.
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 14 2017, 02:08
With the rising global political tensions, gold has gotten a bid over the past week. But is that what is driving the price?
Over the longer term, I would argue that real rates are the most determining factor affecting the price of gold.
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 14 2017, 01:29
Gold is poised to crack the critically important $1291 level which is a trendline going to back to the all time high on September 22nd 2011 when gold hit $1922 an ounce.
Conclusively breaching this trendline is to say we are very much back in a bull run. With $1291 breached there would only be the minor inconvenience of the psychologically important $1300 level - more of a speed bump than a real resistance level - before gold is able to move move higher largely unfettered. See chart below.
Wednesday, April 12 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, April 12 2017, 23:56
Gold enjoyed a very strong day Tuesday and is poised to follow it with another good day today. The catalyst for the move was geopolitical in nature, as both Syria and North Korea took center stage. Renewed tensions in these areas of the world had investors looking for safe-haven assets and "risk-off" investments.
The headline reasons for gold's rise served to highlight many of the other market concerns putting a strong bid to the gold price in recent days.
Sunday, April 9 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Sunday, April 9 2017, 02:22
The truth is that Gold cannot be simply defined as a currency, commodity, inflation hedge or safe haven. At various times it has been some/all of these things and at other times none of these things.
Gold is not a pure play on any one factor but the sum product of multiple factors.
Thursday, April 6 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 6 2017, 00:34
Even before the Fed's new public relations effort pushing policy accommodation, the gold market was firming up. "Money managers," says Bloomberg's Luzi-Ann Javier, "cut their bullish bets on bullion by the most since 2015 in the week ended March 14. The next day, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative for 'some time,' easing market fears that there might be more than three rate hikes this year. Her words sparked the biggest gold rally since November."
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 6 2017, 00:27
One of the consequences of strong inflation is that real rates—what you get when you subtract the current consumer price index (CPI) from the nominal rate—have turned negative. And when this happens, gold has typically been a beneficiary. This is the Fear Trade in action.
Take a look below. Gold shares an inverse relationship with the real 10-year Treasury yield, which is influenced by consumer prices. When inflation is soft and the yield goes up, gold contracts. But when inflation is strong, as it is now, it can push the Treasury yield into subzero territory, prompting many investors to move into other so-called safe haven assets, including gold.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, April 6 2017, 00:25
The most obvious error in the above excerpt concerns the effect of ‘dumping’ gold futures contracts on the COMEX. While this action could certainly have the immediate effect of pushing the gold price down, the short-sale of a futures contract must subsequently be closed via the purchase of a futures contract. This means that there can be no sustained reduction in the gold price due to the selling of futures contracts.
A related error is one of omission, since the gold price is often boosted by the speculative buying of futures contracts. Again, though, the effect will be temporary, since every purchase of a futures contract must be followed by a sale.
Saturday, April 1 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, April 1 2017, 03:43
Gold has recorded a strong gain in the first quarter of 2017, with prices for the precious metal rising around 8 percent.
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, April 1 2017, 02:43
Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is back with another controversial note overnight, reminding readers that "it ain't a normal cycle" for one overarching reason: central banks.
As Hartnett explains, the catalyst for bull in equity and credit markets since 2009 was the "revolutionary monetary policy of central banks" who, since Lehman, "have cut rates 679 times and bought $14.2tn of financial assets." And, once again, he warns that this central bank “liquidity supernova” is coming to an end, as is "the period of excess returns in equities and corporate bonds, as is the period of suppressed volatility."
His best trade recommendation?
Friday, March 31 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, March 31 2017, 00:46
Low interest rates are likely to drive fresh investment in gold this year, potentially pushing prices above $1,400 an ounce despite a well-supplied market, an industry report showed on Thursday.
"Overall, we forecast a modest 3 percent increase in the full-year average to $1,285 (an ounce). This, however, hides a far more aggressive intra-year rise to a peak that could be as high as $1,475 before the end of the year."