Tag - Market Timing
Friday, June 23 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, June 23 2017, 03:25
In no particular order, the gold market’s six most important fundamental price drivers are the trends in 1) the real interest rate, 2) the yield curve, 3) credit spreads, 4) the relative strength of the banking sector, 5) the US dollar’s exchange rate and 6) commodity prices in general. Even though it creates some duplication, the bond/dollar ratio should also be included.
Saturday, June 17 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, June 17 2017, 01:08
Talks on gold at 27 minutes in.
Gold to 700 then 400-450 - then the greatest gold boom in history.
Dent keeps on telling the goldbugs that they will be right about $4000-$5000 gold but that they will be dead before it happens.
Peak in 2038-2040
Friday, June 9 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, June 9 2017, 04:13
They want to make money – but they also want to execute on strategies that will protect their wealth and build robust portfolios that can withstand any type of macro event.
Thursday, June 1 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 23:55
We live in an age of advanced monetary surrealism. In Q1 2017 alone, the largest central banks created the equivalent of almost USD 1,000bn. worth of central bank money ex nihilo. Naturally the fresh currency was not used to fund philanthropic projects but to purchase financial securities. Although this ongoing liquidity supernova has temporarily created an uneasy calm in financial markets, we are strongly convinced that the real costs of this monetary madness will reveal themselves down the line.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 11:25
Deutsche Bank published a special report on the global gold sector, stating “we feel investors should prepare for a flight to gold” in the uncertain global climate. The report also emphasizes the importance of looking for the gold stocks that offer better value, growth or leverage.
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, June 1 2017, 01:34
The upshot of this is that gold looks better than treasuries. However, it should be pointed out that this does not mean gold is a buy. It only states that gold could do better than treasuries in these market conditions. Gold could still fall from here, but treasuries could fall further. One way that this could occur is a collapse in the US dollar, and the Federal Reserve reacting to a weakening US dollar by raising rates.
Tuesday, May 30 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 30 2017, 00:49
Gold will rally ONLY when people begin to see that governments are failing. I am not talking about my readers. We all see what is coming. I am talking about the AVERAGE person on the street. Then you will see the gold breakout. We are getting closing. Patience is required when it comes to gold.
Monday, May 22 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, May 22 2017, 23:05
Perhaps gold’s relative stability belies a degree of incipient investor apprehension. Whatever the motivating factors may be, the suppression of volatility in equity markets is currently being reflected in equivalent suppression of volatility in gold bullion. Indeed, as shown in our addenda graph, implied volatility for spot gold currently stands at a 10-year low. The insurance value of a portfolio commitment to gold is always cheapest before the onset of market volatility against which gold provides protection. For this reason, historic complacency in equity markets may actually be signaling growing urgency for a commitment to precious metals.
Thursday, May 18 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, May 18 2017, 05:24
Gold investors are worried about record high valuations in the S&P 500, despite the fact that gold stocks have shown a negative correlation to the general equities since 2011. The reason for this fear? 2008.The market crash of 2008 did not just hurt the S&P, it hurt real estate and gold equities. The sell off was brutal. So was 2008 an isolated incident or does a crash in general equities always spell doom for gold and gold stocks?
We examined five previous bear markets starting in 1973 in the S&P and looked at the performance of gold and gold stocks.
Tuesday, May 16 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 16 2017, 01:01
Make no mistake, brick and mortar retail is dying. And while there has been modest coverage of the topic in recent weeks, it has focused more on the dismal earnings and subsequent shellacking of a few retail stocks. The reality is that this is much, much bigger. We are in the early stages of a seismic shift in the way goods are purchased – a dislocation that has the potential to unleash far-reaching systemic implications and to profoundly alter the U.S. economy as we know it – from basic employment, to commercial real estate, to the stability of the financial sector and the very same banks brought to the brink during the financial crisis. And whether this takes years to play out or months, the end result is the same: The loss of the two largest employment categories by number of workers, combined with an unparalleled glut of unused commercial real estate, is a crisis in the making.
Anyone who has followed the gold market in recent years knows how it performs in times of crisis.
Saturday, May 13 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, May 13 2017, 01:32
As you can see in the chart below, based on data provided by Moore Research Center, the five-year pattern, represented by the orange line, is diverging from the longer-term trends. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.
Wednesday, May 10 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, May 10 2017, 12:08
All markets are, always have been and always will be manipulated, but this generally doesn’t prevent them from responding in a reasonable way to the genuine fundamentals over multi-month periods.
Tuesday, May 9 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 9 2017, 12:07
What does this mean for gold?
Since the end of Bretton Woods, gold has followed debt. We saw a period of divergence, but this was quickly rectified by a spike of 500% in gold price.
Currently, we are seeing another divergence, and we believe another spike is in the works. While gold is already on the mends, the resulting rally can easily put gold over $2,000/oz. or more.
The world cannot fix its debt problem overnight. In the near future we see a sustained period of economic drought and gold price abundance.
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 9 2017, 12:04
Gold has been unable to trade above the main downtrend line, and the layer of resistance continues to grow in the $1300-$1350 ranges. The longer it takes a market to trade above a specific zone the stronger the resistance becomes; conversely when it eventually does manage to close above this zone former resistance will turn into support. In the interim, it looks like Gold is headed lower and a weekly close below $1200 could take it as low as $1100. As of Dec 2016, Gold has been putting in higher lows, and as long as this trend is maintained, then the overall long-term outlook will remain neutral. To change the outlook to bullish, Gold needs to close above $1350 on a monthly basis.
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 9 2017, 02:58
The demand for junior precious metals mining company stocks is soaring, and as a result VanEck’s GDXJ is being forced by stringent regulations into rebalancing – forced selling to reduce positions that have become too large, which is creating tremendous opportunities. As Eric Sprott says, “There’s too much interest. Isn’t the the funny thing? There’s so much interest that the stocks are going down! It’s the most ironic situation that we’ve ever been in, but there will just be new vehicles created. ” Keith Neumeyer & Eric Sprott join me to discuss this, the precious metals manipulation, the problems at the LBMA and much more.
Saturday, May 6 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, May 6 2017, 08:16
It's often said that gold is the investment to go to in uncertain geopolitical times. Well, times don't come much more uncertain than these. So is it time to build an allocation to the precious metal?
There's no doubt that the future is hard to read. Whether it's Brexit, Trump, French and German elections, Greece, Syria or – the current cause of particular concern – North Korea, the world order is volatile and extremely difficult to predict.
But is it true that this helps gold? The argument is that when other asset classes are struggling, gold goes up, and that it presents a useful hedge against volatility.
Tuesday, May 2 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, May 2 2017, 04:43
The gold/silver ratio’s performance over the past five decades suggests that the 45-60 range can now be considered normal, with moves well beyond the top of this range requiring a banking crisis and/or bursting bubble and moves well beyond the bottom of this range requiring rampant speculation focused on silver.
Friday, April 28 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 28 2017, 23:23
I agree completely that geopolitics are driving the price of gold, and affecting other markets. And they will continue to be a driver. The Fed is currently on a tightening path and that’s normally a headwind for gold, but gold is performing very well. I’m surprised about how well gold has performed over the last month given the macroeconomic headwinds. So I believe there is something else driving gold, and there are two possibilities in my mind. Firstly, it could be good old-fashioned supply and demand. I have met with several physical dealers, e.g. in Shanghai, and everything I’m seeing is indicating tightness in supply and strong demand. But I think the real driver right now is geopolitics.
Wednesday, April 26 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, April 26 2017, 01:36
At Sprott, our investment thesis for gold is significantly long-term in scope. We believe gold’s methodical advance since 2000 has had more to do with the growing disconnect between productive output (GDP) and ever-inflating claims on that output (debt and equity valuations), than with short-term fluctuations in variables such as CPI-type inflation or interest rates. Because we view gold as a highly productive, portfolio-diversifying asset until such time as these gaping imbalances are finally resolved (through default or debasement or both), we are generally loath to focus on short-term projections for gold markets. However, the current alignment of fundamental, technical and quantitative factors underpinning gold markets has become so asymmetrical to the upside, we have developed high confidence for an imminent and potentially significant rally in precious-metal valuations.
Friday, April 21 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, April 21 2017, 01:55
Prime Minister Theresa May surprised the public when she called for an early general election on Tuesday, and sent cautious savers to seek safety in physical gold.
The Pure Gold Company said it saw a 119% increase in customers buying physical gold after the announcement, with one person buying £1.3 million worth of one ounce gold Britannia coins.