Tag - Market Timing

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Tuesday, January 16 2018

SHARPS PIXLEY : Precious Metals Forecasts 2018

GOLD : AVERAGE : $1358 HIGH : $1400 LOW : $1260

SILVER : AVERAGE : $18.08 HIGH : $19.10 LOW : $15.60

PLATINUM : AVERAGE : $884 HIGH : $1045 LOW : $815

PALLADIUM : AVERAGE : $1355 HIGH : $1500 LOW : $800

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Saturday, January 6 2018

It's Time for the Fear Trade to Move Gold Prices

We can thank the Fear Trade for much of gold’s performance last year. The Fear Trade, of course, is driven by low to negative real interest rates—when inflation erodes away at government bond yields—deficit spending, a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Tocqueville Gold Strategy Fourth Quarter 2017 Investor Letter

In our opinion, when the make-believe world of synthetic gold, algorithmic trading, ETFs, fake interest rates, and passive investment collide with the realities of an uncontrollably rising budget deficit and mismatches between surrogates and underlying assets, gold (the real asset) will benefit. To us, it is obvious that the US and other Western governments are simply printing money to service their own debt. When is the tipping point of public recognition of these facts? Perhaps as soon as 2018 or 2019. The catalysts will be higher inflation and interest rates, and lower financial-market valuations. There is no way to predict the moment, but it seems to us that an eventual loss of confidence in paper currencies, including the US dollar, is inescapable, and most likely coming sooner rather than later. It is not, in our opinion, too soon to embrace exposure to gold.

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Thursday, January 4 2018

The Gold Owner's Guide to 2018

2017 will be recorded as a transition year for gold; 2018, in my opinion, will go down as the year gold reasserted itself as a primal force in the global financial marketplace.

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Monday, January 1 2018

Gold, Silver Predictions 2018

A major shift in sentiment will drive prices in the new year.

2017 will be recorded as a transition year for gold; 2018, in my opinion, will go down as the year gold reasserted itself as a primal force in the global financial marketplace.

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Saturday, December 30 2017

A Wall Street Pro's View On Bitcoin, Blockchain, & Bullion

I don’t know exactly how it plays out. I still do like gold. I think the great irony is that gold may be the political solution for central banks to stave off crypto. It’s still on their balance sheet. They can move it in mass if they decide to, and do it quicker and more powerfully than any other constituency in the gold market. They can make gold work to their advantage.

I initially liked it because all the central bank and credit money we have in the world justifies a significantly higher gold price just to account for past inflation.

I still think that gold will play a role in trying to reconcile the books of savers in fiat money. I thought that the Fed could easily set a higher price for gold and devalue dollars against gold. And the process of purchasing the gold from marketplace would be highly inflationary.

They could manage a gold standard and we thought that this was an inevitability.

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Saturday, December 23 2017

10 Charts That Show Why Gold Is Undervalued Right Now

It’s important to remember that the precious metal has historically shared a low-to-negative correlation with many traditional assets such as cash, Treasuries and stocks, both domestic and international. This makes it, I believe, an appealing diversifier in the event of a correction in the capital and forex markets.

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Saturday, December 2 2017

Gold Looks Like a Bargain Just in Time for Christmas

The Barron’s Gold Mining Index, which goes all the way back to 1938, recently underwent its longest bear market ever, between April 2011 and January 2016. And as I already shared with you, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported last month that gold demand fell to an eight-year low in the third quarter.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.”

The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.

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Friday, December 1 2017

Gold and Miners

In this month’s report, we examine the interplay between gold bullion and gold equities. This relationship has been noteworthy in 2017, given an anomalous performance gap that we believe may provide investment opportunity for precious metals investors.

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Monday, November 13 2017

Ray Dalio Goes On Gold Buying Spree, Adds 575% To GLD Holdings, Becomes 8th Largest Holder

In Q3, Ray Dalio went on a gold buying spree, increasing his GLD holdings by a whopping 575%. As a result of the surge in holdings, Bridgewater as of this moment, the 8th largest holder of paper gold, known as GLD.

It wasn't only GLD, however, because Bridgewater also nearly tripled its IAU holdings, increasing its paper iShares gold holdings by 266%, from 3.1 million shares to 11.3 million.

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Saturday, November 11 2017

Gold investors hold their nerve as stock markets fly

“At some point, this stock market run is going to run into some profit-taking, for one reason or another,” he said. “As a hedge, gold’s definitely still the best viable alternative for high exposure to global equity positions.”

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Friday, November 10 2017

The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday

As the chart illustrates, one day really stands out: Friday. With an annualized return of 7.50 percent it reflects almost the entire annualized gain of 8.84 percent generated by the gold price over the time period under review.

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Wednesday, October 18 2017

What Goldbugs Have Been Waiting For: Goldman’s New Primer On Gold

The good news is that Goldman believes “precious metals remain a relevant asset class in modern portfolios, despite their lack of yield” and disagrees with Ben Bernanke and the naysayers “They are neither a historic accident or a relic. Indeed, by looking at each of the physical properties of an ideal long-term store of value…we can clearly see why precious metals were initially adopted and why they remain relevant today.”

It was sounding really good – and there was 91 pages to go - although when it came to the drivers of precious metal prices, Goldman did not exactly re-invent the wheel “We see two key drivers of the precious metals markets: Fear and Wealth”

That said, there was a new take on what, in Goldman's eyes constitutes fear as “in our new framework we see a closer link to growth expectations. However, we ?nd that many risk factors are relevant, depending on the sub-component of gold demand: real interest rates, debasement risks, sovereign balance sheet risks, geopolitical risks and other market tail-risks. Stated more simply, we are talking about the drivers of “risk-on”/”risk-off” behavior in markets.”

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Tuesday, October 17 2017

We Don’t Know How to Replace the Great Big Gold Deposits From the Past

Production is declining and this is going to put an enormous amount of pressure on prices down the road. If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every of those decades the industry found at least one 50+ million ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits. But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits. So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know. We do not have those ore bodies in sight.

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Monday, October 16 2017

Contrarian Music

In our view, gold and the precious-metals complex is in the early stages of a dynamic upcycle that will match or exceed the run from 2000 to 2011.

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Saturday, September 23 2017

You're Going To See A Rush For Gold - Katusa Warns De-Dollarization Is Accelerating

When that money comes back… which it will… and the world starts cluing in that the emerging markets need gold to convert the Yuan and the Ruble and all these different factors, you’re going to see a massive rush for Gold.

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AAA-rated manager buys gold for first time in seven years

Citywire AAA-rated David Coombs has added gold to his multi-asset funds for the first time in seven years.

The manager of the £312.09 million (€352.16 million) Rathbone Multi-Asset Strategic Growth Portfolio had held a cash position of around 15%.

However, the multi-asset manager has this week used around 1.5% of this allocation to make a significant move into the precious metal.

'In each of the funds we are slowly building a position to about 5%. Gold is always a very difficult purchase and, while I have bought it before, it was some years ago,’ Coombs told Citywire Selector.

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Wednesday, September 20 2017

This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From

We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets.

The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years.

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Tuesday, September 12 2017

Gold: Risk from Diminished Rate Expectations

Gold, silver and platinum prices have been rebounding over the past six months for what appears to be one major reason: investors losing faith in the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising interest rates in the current tightening cycle, as reflected in Fed Funds Futures.

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Thursday, September 7 2017

On paper gold has never looked better

A faltering economy, creeping inflation and ongoing geopolitical issues are feeding a resurgence in demand for the yellow metal - and best of all it has cracked a critical six year chart resistance levels. If gold is really "the sum of all fears" then the gold price is saying that not all is rosey in the garden - best of all gold seems to have momentum behind it too.

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