Tag - Market Timing
Friday, March 24 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, March 24 2017, 01:02
Gold has staged an impressive rebound since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week and reiterated that the pace of increases will accelerate. But is a rally logical?
Wednesday, March 22 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, March 22 2017, 01:03
The correlation between gold prices and US nominal interest rates recently dropped to near record lows, which prompted some financial analysts and media sources to predict that further Fed interest hikes will inevitably lead to lower gold prices. However, proper analysis shows that gold prices move with real-interest rates, not nominal rates. And while nominal interest rates are likely to rise further, real-interest rates are not, because inflation expectations are moving higher as well. In fact, we believe that even if the economy allows the Fed to raise rates several percent higher, real-rates have likely peaked and thus gold prices troughed. Being already in the second longest economic expansion in US history, odds are that the economy will begin to slow long before the FED has raised rates to its 3% forecast, which means that the ensuing monetary easing will push real-interest rates into negative territory and gold prices higher again.
Saturday, March 18 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, March 18 2017, 01:52
“The gold miner’s rally has much more room to go and this will be primarily due to the reason because there is still more upside to gold,” Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets U.K. Ltd., said in an email. “The Fed is not going to hawkish anytime soon.”
Friday, March 17 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, March 17 2017, 01:37
Gold extended its rally this year as fears that the US Federal Reserve would signal a much faster pace of rate rises failed to materialise.
Wednesday, March 8 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, March 8 2017, 01:47
On a chart of GLD, Worth looks at both the uptrend and downtrend lines for the ETF. GLD's recent fall corresponds with a downtrend line that began in May of last year, suggesting that the metal will fail to rise above the line. Moreover, gold has also fallen below an uptrend line that appeared when the metal began its rally, suggesting that gold's run may be done.
Monday, March 6 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, March 6 2017, 07:32
Long-term gold bull markets can therefore be viewed as periods when the public has an increasing propensity to save and when the actions of the authorities and/or the weakened financial positions of the commercial banks make it riskier to save in terms of the official money.
Sunday, March 5 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Sunday, March 5 2017, 00:04
Now, as you are about to see, we could be in the early stages of a new and little understood monetary crisis. The massive amount of capital parked at the Federal Reserve as excess reserves is being steadily withdrawn by the commercial banks and loaned to businesses and consumers with notable effect. About $700 billion of the $2.7 trillion pool of money on deposit at the Fed has already been redeployed by the commercial banks. In turn, the money supply has begun to rise, and most notably this past January (2017) the producer price index registered a surprising nearly double-digit 8% annual increase. As it turns out, the inflation created by the Fed's quantitative easing program seems only to have been put in temporary abeyance. The full effect is yet to be determined.
Saturday, March 4 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, March 4 2017, 02:34
Multiple BMO interviews with gold mining leaders.
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, March 4 2017, 02:04
I’ve heard the same stories from Switzerland to Shanghai and everywhere in between, that there are physical gold shortages popping up, and that refiners are having trouble sourcing gold. Refiners have waiting lists of buyers, and they can’t find the gold they need to maintain their refining operations.
And new gold discoveries are few and far between, so demand is outstripping supply. That’s why some of the opportunities we’ve uncovered in gold miners are so attractive right now. One good find can make investors fortunes.
My point is that physical shortages are becoming an issue. That is an important driver of gold prices.
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, March 4 2017, 01:51
"They really represent a gift here. We had such a big decline from 2011. A lot of those stocks lost 80 to 90 percent of their value," he said in an interview with "Closing Bell" on Friday.
"Then we had a nice rally in 2016 in the first half, a selloff in the second half. Now for 2017 we think gold stocks are going to be up a lot and also the bullion and silver."
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, March 4 2017, 00:27
The last commentary says it all, it will all go horribly wrong. That is the inevitable consequence of 100 years of credit expansion from virtually nothing to $250 trillion, plus global unfunded liabilities of probably $500 trillion, plus derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion. This is a staggering total of $2 ¼ quadrillion. Therefore, the question is not what could go wrong since it is guaranteed that all these liabilities will implode at some point. And when they do, it will bring misery to the world of a magnitude that no one could ever imagine. It is of course very difficult to forecast the end of a major cycle. As this is unlikely to be a mere 100-year cycle but possibly a 2000-year cycle. It is also impossible to forecast how long the decline will take. Will it be gradual like the Dark Ages which took 500 years after the fall of the Roman Empire? Or will the fall be much faster this time due to the implosion of the biggest credit bubbles in history? The latter is more likely especially since the bubble will become a lot bigger before it implodes. Also this time we are not talking about real assets crashing in value but the biggest part will be paper assets with no intrinsic value.
Friday, March 3 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, March 3 2017, 07:46
The other scenario says gold is in a correction within a secular bull market that started in 2000 at $250 and will complete around $5,000 to $10,000. I personally believe that this is only a correction towards a price of at least $5,000. This pattern resembles the pattern created by the price of gold in the 70s bull market. I believe the 2000 bull market is a continuation of the collapse of the fiat system. Since it was decoupled from gold, the dollar and all the other currencies lost more than 95 percent of their value in gold.
Tuesday, February 21 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Tuesday, February 21 2017, 00:05
Inflation is perking up and couple that with a Fed that pursues rate hikes at a glacial speed and that is very bullish for precious metals.
Monday, February 20 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, February 20 2017, 10:09
What works for gold in practice rarely works in theory.
The last three U.S. interest-rate increases that should, all other things being equal, be bad for the metal have seen prices jump in the months that followed.
Gold is up about 7 percent since the Federal Reserve raised rates on Dec. 14. It jumped 13 percent in the two months following the last increase in December 2015 and 6 percent the previous time way back in June 2006.
Wednesday, February 15 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, February 15 2017, 03:09
Soros Fund Management LLC got out of gold in the fourth quarter of 2016
John Paulson, cut its stake in SPDR Gold Trust to 4.4 million shares, worth $478 million, from 4.8 million shares, worth $600 million, at the end of the third quarter
Monday, February 13 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, February 13 2017, 05:36
This, coupled with a more dovish Federal Reserve, expectations of higher inflation and growing demand for a safe haven, has helped push gold prices back above $1,200 an ounce. January, in fact, was the best month for the yellow metal since June, when Brexit anxiety and negative government bond yields sent it to as high as $1,370.
Demand for gold as an investment was up a whopping 70 percent year-over-year in 2016, according to the World Gold Council. Gold ETFs had their second-best year on record. But immediately following the November election, outflows from gold ETFs and other products accelerated, eventually shedding some 193 metric tons.
But now, just two weeks into Trump’s term as president, the gold bulls are banging the drum, with several large hedge fund managers taking a contrarian bet on the precious metal.
By GCRU Gold News on Monday, February 13 2017, 04:42
This year, the Year of the Rooster in the Chinese lunar calendar, will also be the year of gold, said Haywood Cheung, president of the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society－an umbrella organization of gold trading firms in Hong Kong which are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange.
In an interview with the China Daily, Cheung said he drew his confidence from the turbulent global economic environment, which he said would create a bull market for bullion.
Cheung forecast that the international gold price could potentially climb to $1,600 per ounce in the year. Investors are advised to allocate 20 to 30 percent of their assets to the gold market to hedge risks including the depreciation of major currencies, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's China policy and the sluggish economic situation in Europe.
Friday, February 10 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Friday, February 10 2017, 02:11
Grant Williams latest - oil & gold
Thursday, February 9 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Thursday, February 9 2017, 23:09
In gold, we currently have 4 false breakouts to date so we are getting close to the turn. That Downtrend Line stands at the 1312 area now on the weekly chart. Perhaps this will be the fifth false move if we get through that monthly number we provided. We would need to get above the Downtrend line and still close above 1362 on a weekly and monthly basis to say OK – a real rally is underway.
Wednesday, February 8 2017
By GCRU Gold News on Wednesday, February 8 2017, 22:54
The notion that gold will simply roll over and die and that a new bull market leg higher is impossible with interest rates rising, is brain-dead.
Just consider the last big bull market in gold, from 1973 to 1980, when interest rates were soaring as was the price of gold and most commodities.
Sure, inflation was roaring higher then too. But that doesn’t negate the fact that gold soared with higher interest rates.
Instead, it proves my point: Until interest rates get well ahead of inflation — which is something we will not see for years based on my models — they will not be negative for gold!