In a previous article we have discussed that gold trades more like a currency than a commodity. An approach of a gold market balance, which produces a surplus or deficit, is therefore not appropriate nor indicative of price direction. Because silver is both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity its supply and demand dynamics require special attention. My conclusion is that silver, just like gold, trades more like a currency than a commodity.

In total, there were an estimated 1.6 million metric tonnes of physical silver above ground by late 2018. This amount is 20 times higher than what The Silver Institute discloses as “identifiable above-ground stocks,” which is what’s widely assumed to be the total above-ground stock. The huge discrepancy is important to analyze, as it reveals silver’s true stock to flow ratio and supply and demand dynamics. Misunderstanding these dynamics would mean failing to understand the price of silver.

Silver margins raised 6%

Join Mike Maloney for a follow up from last week's video on the extreme event occurring in silver. You'll see the level of accumulation has only struck these levels before twice since 1969... what does it all mean?

Mine Production = 855.7 m/oz

Physical Demand = 1,033.5 m/oz

Last year, for the fifth year in a row, the silver market recorded another deficit; this time of 26.0 Moz (810 t). Mine supply fell for the second consecutive year by 4% in 2017, following 13 consecutive annual increases prior to 2016. This was a result of years of Capex reductions in combination with supply disruptions, particularly in the Americas. With scrap supply contracting by 1% in combination with net-hedging of 1.4 Moz (44 t), total silver supply fell by 2% to just under one billion ounces.

China will continue to be a major driver in the global silver market for years to come, fueled by continued industrial demand and silver mining activity. China is by far the largest consumer of silver globally, accounting for 18% of global fabrication demand in recent years.

Deep beneath Chancery Lane in central London are the London Silver Vaults, containing the largest retail collection of antique silver in the world.

Industrial demand for silver, fueled by record photovoltaic growth, rose in 2017 for the first time since 2013. A stronger global economy led to healthy demand from the semi-conductor market, resulting in greater silver offtake in electrical and electronics applications as well as brazing alloys and solders. The jewelry and silverware sectors also experienced noteworthy gains in 2017. On the supply side, global mine supply fell for the second consecutive year, following an uninterrupted streak of 13 annual increases prior to 2016. Silver scrap supply, which has been in retreat since 2012, again registered a loss. These factors led to a tightening of the supply/demand balance, contributing to a physical deficit of 26 million ounces (Moz) in 2017, the fifth consecutive annual deficit.

Silver Market Balance

The silver market balance (total supply less total demand) is expected swing into a slight market deficit again this year with both supply and demand reaching above 1 billion ounces. Silver from above ground stocks will have to be drawn down in order to serve the shortfall. That will be a welcome development as above ground stocks rose 9% last year in the face of weak physical demand from the United States and Asia.