The rise of Tesla Motors Inc.’s electric cars won’t be enough to change the market for conventional vehicles or dent demand for the precious metals used to filter exhaust fumes, according to GMK Norilsk Nickel PJSC.

The lack of infrastructure to charge them and the pressure on power grids means that in the long term, the vehicles may comprise just 15 percent of the total auto market,

Platinum Group Metals Survey 2016

South Africa's mining industry, unions and the government have committed to a broad plan to stem job losses, including boosting platinum by promoting the metal as a central bank reserve asset, according to a draft agreement seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

The draft agreement lays out 10 wide interventions including getting the BRICS group of emerging nations to hold "platinum as a reserve asset" - like gold - in their central banks. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa comprise the BRICS.

While the platinum miners have indeed talked about cutbacks and closures, they have so far fallen short of implementing them due largely to union and government opposition. But Lonmin, as the weakest link in the chain, does look as though it will be the first to move to cut output.

Goldman forecast the platinum price will stand at $1,175 a troy ounce at the end of 2015 , 6% down from its previous forecast of $1,250 an ounce. For the end of next year, it sees a slight recovery to $1,225 – but still 9% lower than its previous forecast.

The bank sees palladium prices at $822 an ounce at the end of this year, versus $863 previously, and $900 an ounce next year, down from $988.

Precious metals are often misunderstood in the investment world.

“The last two years in platinum have been terrible,” Neil Vance, wholesale manager at the mint, said by phone from Perth on Wednesday. “Suddenly when platinum, a more exotic style of metal, becomes cheaper they buy platinum. They see it as an opportunity, it’s perceived better than going with gold when it drops under the gold price.”

So in platinum, all is not what it seems on the surface. We may be in a period of substantial supply deficit, but as long as there remains considerable stockpiles and metal held in the ETFs, assuming the estimates are largely correct, there appears to be no real shortage in the global industrial marketplace. So predictions of good price increases this year because of the perceived supply/demand balance may just not come about.

Platinum demand will outpace supply by 1.13 million ounces this year and palladium’s deficit will be 1.62 million ounces, according to a presentation of London-based Johnson Matthey’s platinum-group metals report. They would be the biggest shortfalls ever, based on data going back more than three decades for the metals.

So, while PGM-watchers haven't writen off more price pain, they tend to favour some bottom or near-bottom in the price of platinum forming at the moment. "While it is still hard to call a bottom, we think the selloff has largely run its course," Standard Bank's Charles De Wet recently remarked to the WSJ. Likewise, UBS has told clients that platinum below $1,300/oz is a "buying opportunity." And in the same vein, HSBC's James Steel said that at current prices the precious metal is oversold.