Deutsche Bank estimates that platinum palladium and rhodium production in South Africa will be down 29%, 37% and 26% respectively in 2014 compared to our estimates at the start of the year. Moreover, Deutsche Bank sees a permanent reduction in South African productive capacity following strike action.

As a result, South African PGM production is unlikely to return to pre-strike levels and consequently Deutsche Bank views market deficits in platinum, palladium and rhodium as being larger and more durable than before.