Barrick’s gold production poised for another steep decline

A year ago, the Financial Post published a note stating that Barrick Gold Corp.’s production was set to drop significantly in 2014. It did just that, falling to 6.25 million ounces (from 7.4 million in 2013).

Now another production cliff is looming for the world’s largest gold producer as it sheds non-core mines to improve returns and lower its debt load.

Barrick thinks it can keep production above six million ounces a year through 2017, and J.P. Morgan analyst John Bridges agrees. But after that, he expects production to plummet to around 4.5 million ounces by 2020, and fall even lower a few years later.

“It’s become apparent recently that the upper limit of sustainable gold production is around the three to four million ounce level assuming Barrick is skilled at acquiring new projects in a way that makes them accretive,”

Barrick’s gold production poised for another steep decline