Three Catalysts for the Price of Gold

Investors have long understood that gold is an excellent hedge against inflation. The analysis is straightforward. Inflation is caused, in part, by excessive money printing by central banks; something central banks can do in unlimited amounts. On the other hand, gold is scarce and costly to produce. It emerges in small quantities.

The total growth in global gold supplies is about 1.5% per year and has been slowing lately. Compare this to the 400% growth in base money engineered by the Federal Reserve since 2008, and it’s easy to see how a lot more money chasing a small amount of gold will cause the dollar price of gold to rise over time.

But this is not the only driver of higher gold prices. There are at least three other catalysts – extreme deflation, financial panic, and negative real interest rates. A brief look at all three scenarios will give us a more robust understanding of gold’s potential price performance.

Three Catalysts for the Price of Gold