Russell Napier Explains What's In Store For Gold If Cash Is Outlawed
By GCRU Gold News on Saturday, May 9 2015, 23:09 - Permalink
So, should we reach the limits to monetary policy, what’s in store for that ‘barbarous relic’ sometimes known as gold? It would be a period of rapidly rising real interest rates, as a floor on negative nominal interest rates had been set in a period of accelerating deflation. This should be bad for gold. As The Solid Ground has argued before, the de-leveraging which always comes with deflation and falling cashflows would be very positive for the USD. This would also be bad for gold.
However, in such a world, zero-yielding gold would be a high-yielding instrument. If the authorities ever sought to restrict access to banknotes, then gold would suddenly find itself enfranchised as money for the first time in many decades. So, given the scale of these competing forces, it is just too early to say what might happen to the gold price, but the allure of gold will grow the more it becomes clear that central bank fiat has failed and the age of government fiat is dawning.
The time is ever nearer when the price of gold will rise in an era of deflation. In due course, though no time soon, the full force of government fiat will engineer a reflation, albeit one replete with the misallocations of savings and capital so beloved by the bureaucrat. Then the PhD standard, in which the value of money is linked only to the words of the over-educated, will have ended. The gold price will rise even further, ‘And the words that are used for to get the ship confused will not be understood as they’re spoken, for the chains of the sea will have busted in the night’. And that’s ‘The hour when the ship comes in.’