It’s been an erratic year for gold, with the biggest first-half rally in almost four decades giving way to a retreat as focus shifted from political uncertainty on the Brexit vote to U.S. monetary policy. Holdings through exchange-traded products have shrunk continuously since Donald Trump won the U.S. election, fueling optimism fiscal stimulus will energize the economy and driving a gauge of the dollar to the highest levels since at least 2005.

“It’s a changing of the trend,” said Erik Tatje, a market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. “As we look at a rising interest-rate environment, that will add value to the dollar. That will put tremendous downside pressure on gold.”