A gold industry obsessed with containing costs and minimizing risks will find itself at the edge of a cliff by 2020 as supply tightens, according to one of the most profitable producers.

Half of the gold coming out of the ground isn’t profitable to mine based on the true extraction costs, he said.

The industry is headed for a dramatic supply shortage from 2020 if gold prices stay between $1,000 and $1,400 an ounce, he said.

Input costs probably will rise as “you’ve got a complete over-inflation of value in just about every asset class and industry in the world, with burgeoning central bank balance sheets.”

The result will be higher gold prices