Tag - Palladium

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Tuesday, July 29 2014

Stricter emissions control in China to drive palladium prices higher

Tight supply and stricter vehicle pollution control standards on the mainland will continue to be key drivers of higher prices of palladium this year and next year, even as the industrial metal’s price reached a 13-year peak, analysts say.

The roll-out of the stringent National IV vehicle emissions standard and Beijing’s order last month to take pollution-prone pre-National III “yellow-label” vehicles nationwide off the road this year will drive up demand for new cars.

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Palladium poised for record year in 2014, again in 2015

Palladium will reach its highest yearly price on record this year and could top that in 2015 as expectations for lower South African output combine with a recovery in demand and doubts over Russian supply, a Reuters poll showed. Palladium, which has averaged $777 an ounce in the first half, is expected to average $805.50 an ounce in the full year, up more than 10 percent from 2013 and its highest since Reuters data began in 1984, a survey of 31 analysts and traders showed.

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Saturday, July 19 2014

Market looking for palladium to hit $1,000/oz in 2014; strong fundamentals

The market is looking for palladium to hit $1,000/oz before the end of 2014, as the industrial/precious metal continues its bull run, various sources told Platts this week.

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Wednesday, July 16 2014

Palladium Buys Most Gold Since ’04 on Shortage

Palladium, a metal used in pollution-control devices, is trading near the highest price to gold in a decade as increasing global car sales coincide with supply disruptions caused by labor disputes in South Africa.

Global car sales will reach a record 72.13 million units this year, Scotiabank estimated in a report in June. Palladium demand will outstrip supply by 1.61 million ounces, the most since at least 1980, according to Johnson Matthey Plc, which makes a third of the world’s catalytic converters.

“We’re looking this year at a huge deficit so I wouldn’t be surprised if the rally continues and it closes in on gold,”

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Saturday, June 14 2014

Strike widens world’s palladium shortage

THE most costly mine strike in South Africa’s history has compounded the longest global production shortfall in 14 years for palladium, just as car makers are set to use record amounts of the precious metal.

Output of the commodity used mostly to cut vehicle emissions will trail demand by a record high of

1.6-million ounces this year, after the strike idled 60% of supplies from the world’s second-largest producer, according to autocatalyst maker Johnson Matthey.

Prices have gained 22% since January and touched a 13-year high on Thursday. Analysts expect a further 11% increase in New York prices to $950/oz by year end, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Even though miners said on Thursday they had agreed on a deal "in principle" to end the strike, Morgan Stanley says output deficits will still last at least until 2018 as surging car sales from North America to China boost demand for catalytic converters.

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Thursday, June 12 2014

Palladium hits 13-year high on supply worries, strong demand

Palladium jumped to its highest level since early 2001 on Wednesday, benefitting from a five-month strike in South Africa and strong demand from the auto sector.

Palladium has risen 20% so far this year, underpinned by supply worries after a South African strike over wages took out 40% of global platinum output and hit the domestic economy. The country is the world’s second-biggest producer of palladium.

A fresh round of wage settlement talks between the main mine workers’ union and major platinum producers broke down on Monday, when the metal rose 1.7%. It touched a peak of $862.50 an ounce on Wednesday, its highest level since February 2001. Prices rose 0.8% to $859.75 an ounce by 3.03pm GMT.

"Palladium strengthened on the back of the strike situation in South Africa... the collapse of the mediation talks has been the main trigger, clearly indicating the supply situation is tightening,"

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Wednesday, May 28 2014

Russian Palladium Flows to Switzerland Jump on Sanction Concerns

Russia’s palladium exports to Switzerland climbed to an 11-month high in April, a month after the biggest supplier of the metal annexed Crimea in a standoff that sparked warnings of tougher sanctions from western nations.

Switzerland imported 2,158 kilograms (2.2 metric tons) of palladium from Russia in April, the most since May 2013, data sent today by the Swiss Federal Customs Administration show. That compares with 201 kilograms in March.

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Saturday, May 24 2014

Palladium scrap supply dips as junkyards await higher prices

U.S. scrap palladium supplies tightened as junkyards, hoping to capitalize on higher prices, held onto used auto catalytic converters, fueling fears about a widening deficit as strikes in major producer South Africa dragged on, recyclers said.

Falling supplies of spent autocatalysts, by far the biggest source of palladium after mine output, come as heightened geopolitical tensions in Russia and South Africa's longest-ever strike reinforce concerns about a widening deficit

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Friday, May 23 2014

Carmaker Hype Sends Palladium To Highest Against Gold In 10 Years

Gold is trading at the lowest level relative to palladium since 2004 as Bloomberg notes that prospects for a record shortage has lured investors to the metal used in pollution-control devices for cars amid concern that supply will be disrupted. As the chart below shows an oz of gold buys only 1.54 oz of palladium (less than a 3rd of the 5oz gold could buy in 2009) as supply problems (mining strikes and Russian sanctions) collide with demand expectations (the 'recovery' of the global car market). Despite GM's problems, record levels of channel-stuffed inventories, and a still stagnant consumer (showing no interest in big purchases), IHS expects a record level of auto sales this year at 85 million.

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Wednesday, May 21 2014

Strikes fuelling palladium price rise

Analysts at Citigroup estimate global palladium supplies are sufficient to meet demand for another 14 weeks. About half those supplies, however, are held by Russia, which carefully controls the sales of its stockpiles, Citigroup analysts said.

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Tuesday, May 20 2014

Norilsk would find ways around sanctions to sell palladium

Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer, would find ways around sanctions to sell the metal if its operations are targetted by Western governments, an executive at the company said on Friday.

Russia's seizure of Crimea has resulted in European Union and US sanctions on some Russian individuals and certain companies, but Norilsk has so far escaped unscathed.

But the United States and its European allies agreed on Thursday that Russia should face broader economic and industrial sanctions if the Kremlin meddled in Ukrainian elections later this month, a US official said.

"We hope that common sense will prevail," Anton Berlin, Norilsk marketing director, told Reuters in an interview. "In theory, even with the most pessimistic scenario Norilsk will find ways to sell its products... Plus, it's against the interests of our consumers there."

Norilsk accounts for 41% of global mined output of palladium, which is used in emissions-capping catalytic converters in automobiles and in jewellery.


Selling metal from Russian state stockpiles controlled by precious metals and gems repository Gokhran has been a key source of supply to the market for much of the last decade, but has been dwindling in recent years.

Gokhran has plans to start buying palladium and expects Norilsk to be the most likely seller, its head Andrey Yurin told Interfax news agency on Friday.

Berlin said he was surprised by Gokhran's plan, as the repository had been focusing on gold than on industrial metals in recent years.

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Palladium Potential

In this Palladium chart the next leg up is the same size as the first leg up from $150 to $850 ie. plus $700, that happened in 2009-2011 With the breakout of the major wedge at $750 plus the equivalent of the $700 up that gives a potential target of $1450.

In the bull run of 1997-2001 the price built a base up to $350 then broke out & ran. So I've choosen that leg up to emulate the next leg up from the large base built up from 2010-2014.

Simple T/A that may provide some light of potential up moves. Outlandish or possible potential...

Click on chart for large chart pop-up.

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Saturday, May 10 2014

Platinum Could Rise to $1,700 by Year End, Average Projected at $1,457: Thomson Reuters GFMS

However, GFMS analysts also expect platinum "to exceed the $1,700/oz level by the end of this year," so investors are hopeful that the white metal may see gains yet. The firm made its projection on the basis that rising platinum demand will be outweighed by significant decreases in mine supply and production.

Meanwhile, the average price of platinum's sister metal, palladium, is expected to see gains of 9 percent from 2013. GFMS believes it has already bottomed out for this year. "Robust demand is expected to propel the price of palladium towards a test of $930 before year-end. This year's average is forecast at $793 /oz," the firm said.

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Wednesday, May 7 2014

3 Ways to Play a Surge in Palladium Prices

For investors looking to gain exposure to precious metals and resurgent mining companies, all that glitters is not gold. In fact, demand growth combined with shrinking supplies and regional conflicts are making platinum and its sister metal palladium shine brighter

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Tuesday, May 6 2014

Palladium Performs and Why It Continues To Increase in Price

One reason why Palladium prices have jumped is because of the increase in the world demand for better and more stringent pollution controls. In particular India and China have lead the way in the growth of demand due to their increase in the amount of population driving cars and other vehicles on the road that require pollution controls in the form of catalytic converters.

China is home to the fastest-growing automobile market in the world. In China last year, the number of cars on the road jumped by nearly 40 percent. Sales of domestically produced automobiles soared by 55 percent. The number of cars is expected to increase at least 10-15% per year through the rest of the decade. The number could even be larger because the Chinese are discovering new car financing. Imagine what will happen when 1.6 billion people discover no money down, five-year car loans!!!

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Friday, May 2 2014

Thomson Reuters Publishes GFMS Platinum & Palladium Survey 2014

Palladium is believed to have bottomed out already in 2014 and robust demand is expected to propel the price towards a test of 930 before year-end.

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Palladium Near 32-Month Highs On Supply Fears

Platinum prices remain largely unmoved by the breakdown in wage talks aimed at ending South Africa’s mine workers’ strike. But palladium is trading near 32-month highs on fears of potential supply disruptions.

In contrast to platinum, palladium prices are continuing to move up, supported by tensions surrounding Russia’s involvement in eastern Ukraine with the backdrop of South Africa’s continuing mine strike adding further impetus. More than 80 percent of global palladium production is concentrated in South Africa and the Russian Federation, with Russia accounting for nearly half of total palladium supply.

Worries about a potential disruption to supply of the metal from Russia in retaliation to western sanctions at a time when South African mine production is entering its fifteenth week of outage is driving the price higher. But analysts report supplies of Russian palladium remain steady.

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